Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 218.656536 266.996001 327.329435 409.620689 521.289043 6.711674e+02 8.941214e+02
2025-06-01 157.427644 209.508992 282.776942 397.764719 582.646558 8.865024e+02 1.469888e+03
2025-06-08 123.698767 174.199893 251.223951 384.833065 629.267333 1.104086e+03 2.257183e+03
2025-06-15 111.443204 165.400920 254.257339 424.496516 781.224826 1.618933e+03 4.364993e+03
2025-06-22 97.116188 149.487081 240.538884 428.208312 865.040695 2.066724e+03 7.301161e+03
2025-06-29 87.748378 139.605621 234.383060 443.780893 984.860921 2.746692e+03 1.360737e+04
2025-07-06 78.234629 127.568491 221.195468 439.489529 1053.156519 3.364127e+03 2.353464e+04
2025-07-13 74.906750 126.078614 228.094958 483.789887 1292.820894 5.090982e+03 6.856553e+04
2025-07-20 71.431982 123.620656 232.321349 523.452164 1555.745938 7.678751e+03 2.733471e+05
2025-07-27 67.641229 119.864097 232.820207 553.658244 1818.187294 1.135237e+04 2.028508e+06
2025-08-03 63.538776 114.813715 229.265345 571.079732 2051.393311 1.618692e+04 1.352587e+08
2025-08-10 59.333753 108.940023 222.579811 576.615140 2241.478282 2.220060e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 54.557451 101.464779 211.207400 565.218153 2350.896660 2.881857e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 50.057867 94.078788 198.867115 546.860088 2410.973210 3.608892e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 46.073234 87.377675 187.187103 527.205087 2449.784552 4.456489e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 45.498944 88.307103 195.830036 587.515702 3156.321444 1.078040e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 43.049692 84.574041 191.033447 593.197637 3463.230263 1.840878e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 41.378189 82.479709 190.492587 617.128909 4008.797127 4.278536e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 39.009140 78.437094 183.608226 610.521559 4245.431135 7.898501e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 38.708422 79.421632 191.879870 679.156560 5608.674194 9.339183e+06 NaN
2025-10-12 38.122337 79.616351 197.831202 741.389769 7249.114655 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 37.198155 78.830518 200.537681 789.263460 9009.417804 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 35.947050 77.046444 199.637392 817.057641 10632.117412 NaN NaN